@lindsay.at

After seeing the appropriate portion of the Macworld Expo keynote presentation by Steve Jobs, I have some thoughts about the revamped AppleTV.

First off, I'm pretty happy about it. I'm very pleased that the "version 2" is just a software upgrade. It was pretty clear that the original hardware was over-specced for what it did at the beginning, so I bought early with a lot of confidence that the hardware would last. (Subsequent teardown reports that suggested tiny margins on the hardware increased that confidence.)

It's interesting to note that the UK prices haven't changed. At £199 and £269, Apple is treating the UK AppleTV as a niche product. If you know you want it, you've probably already gotten it. As soon as movies are available internationally, then I would expect the price to go down a bit. You gotta have the blades ready to go, if you want to sell cheaper razors...

Looking at the demos available online, it's unclear where the "source" menu has gone. We have a 40GB unit, and when Rosemary or I are feeling in an aimless mood, we'll mount our 500GB iTunes library and browse that for inspiration. I worry somewhat that streaming from arbitrary sources might be compromised in the new software.

The store integration is very impressive, and very inviting. It's what's needed to make rentals work: highly visual, presenting a multitude of choices, and accommodating to impulse buys (or rentals). It looks like a model that all others should follow.

However, the AppleTV now appears to be little more than a portal for the iTunes Store. The menu system puts an extraordinary amount of attention on the Store, and pushes one's own content to the bottom. It seems odd that streaming content over the internet is given such priority after the first version: Apple's view always seemed to be, "Don't trust the internet's quality of service, but you can stream over the LAN." LAN-based content, as far as I can tell, seems to be hidden.

I always viewed Podcasts as a back door for (free) content onto the AppleTV. They are the "other easy way" to get content pushed (automatically) into the living room. Before, entering arbitrary URLs into iTunes (perhaps via a clickable itpc: link) was about equivalent to subscription via Apple's iTunes Podcast directory. Now, via the AppleTV, the iTunes store solidifies its position as an orifice to podcasts. It looks inviting, instantly gratifying, and well done, but it makes Apple more of a gatekeeper to free content.

The fact that high definition finally makes its appearance is exciting to me. It's not how I originally imagined it would be, but everything I've read suggests that SVC scalable video encoding isn't ready for prime time yet. It may make an appearance, once hi-def moves to a purchase model/off the AppleTV exclusively.

There has been some speculation on why hi-def is AppleTV only. Some think it might be due to piracy concerns by the studios, but I think there are technology reasons as well. For 5.1 surround sound, there is no reliable, universal way for Mac or PC users to enjoy content encoded that way. High-Definition video cannot be played out on any of the iPhone/iPod family, either, so simply placing that content into iTunes creates a confusing situation ("this content is not compatible with your iPod") for those much-beloved users. In other words, hi-def is AppleTV-only because the technology isn't ready to accommodate the other devices in the ecosystem. I've outlined the ways it could happen, eventually, but for now, a closed, black box solution is sufficient for content that will not have a lifespan beyond thirty days.

I'm really eager to see the updated software myself, but I do worry that Apple may have made itself too much of a gatekeeper to content in the rush to give people the movie rentals they wanted.

I live in hope.

Apple's announcement yesterday was about music. I had hoped that it would fill in the picture for high-definition video delivery to the home. I still think the pre-holiday season is the ideal time to deliver this, for Apple.

So, because it's my nature, I'm continuing to speculate on Apple's hi-def delivery possibilities until it does happen. I think if it happens this year, it'll have to happen soon, like, by 18 or 19 September by the latest. Why? The major US networks' television season starts in earnest on Sunday 23 September, and that will be a well-established, rich stream for ready high-definition content. The movie releases will probably be a trickle, but seeing downloadable television in hi-def will get consumers used to seeing it on their big-screen, flat TVs, and demanding it in greater quantities.

Since I'm engaged in reckless speculation, I may as well add that I believe that that sort of deadline is what led to Apple's particular urgency in the negotiations with NBC, and the public spat that followed. I think the $4.99 price point that has been the focus of the dispute, and has since baffled commentators, was the price that NBC was pulling for with HD downloads. Why, if NBC is doubling the wholesale price, would the end-consumer's price go up by 150%? Only if Apple's costs were increased. I'm guessing they would triple from where they are.

I imagine that Apple was pulling for a slight wholesale premium for high-definition television downloads. Maybe they were pulling for a $2.99 price, more likely they were willing to go up to $3.99. NBC may well have said, "If you're charging double, we want to charge you twice the price." The bandwidth costs, however, would eat into Apple's margins, and they reached an impasse, made particularly painful because Heroes in hi-def would be the ideal flagship launch title. Apple's response was to pull NBC's new season launches, to eliminate confusion about standard-definition downloads, living in hope that the NBC-hi-def picture would resolve before year- (or season-) end. (If a program is upgraded to HD mid-season, what happens to the existing downloads? A solution is technically possible, but it will cost money, and create a logistical nightmare for billing of – and communications with – customers.)

I want to believe that Apple had planned HD for yesterday's event (and had ABC, CBS, FOX, and the CW lined up), but pulled it in hopes that two weeks' more negotiation would make the difference with NBC. For once, I think that Apple does not hold all the cards at the negotiating table. They scored an early win in public opinion, but NBC's move to Amazon's Unbox service was a clever counter, confusing people with regards to Apple's stated prices. Ultimately, these public moves won't count for much during negotiations.

Me, I really am hoping to see Heroes in hi-def, offered on the iTunes store. I would pay a reasonable price for the season. So long as Apple negotiates the right price for the bundled package, I don't care so much what the individual episodes cost.

I, like Blackfriars, am holding on to my hope that next week's iPod announcement will offer the beginnings of Apple's high-definition strategy. Blackfriars asks, "High-definition video putting the special in next week's Apple Special Event?":

Speaking of the Internet bringing the end of TV as we know it, everyone seems to be expecting new music and iPod offerings at the Apple Special Event in Moscone Center on September 5. But what has gone more or less unnoticed is the fact that Akamai, Apple's long-time Internet content partner, has announced that it is adding high-definition video to its Internet distribution offerings.

A coincidence? Perhaps. But add the fact that Apple TV, a product whose revenue is being recognized as a 24-month subscription model like the iPhone, sports high-definition outputs, yet has no high-definition iTunes content yet, and you've got a high-definition shoe ready to drop sometime; the only question is when.

Well, I've been wondering the same thing. Back in April, I outlined that it's certainly technically feasible: There's a new extension to H.264 that allows an additional video stream to enhance the basic stream that's there. iPods and iPhones would only need to sync with the basic 640×360 pixel stream that the iTunes store already delivers. An AppleTV, Intel-based Mac, or G5 Mac would be able to read both video streams at once, combine them, and show 720p high definition.

I could once again be blinded by the possible and the (personally) desirable over "likely." Apple could well excite people enough with the new iPods. The movie studios may well be holding out for rentals (though Blackfriars has some thoughts on that, as well) before handing Apple the keys to the HD castle as well. The combination of the Beatles, new iPods, and Hi-Def may well be too much for such an event: Hi-Def may not materialise this year.

But I'm hoping.

(Via The Macalope.)

When Apple's iTunes Music Store introduced video at 320×240 resolution back in October 2005, it raised a number of questions: how would it scale up? How could they manage movies at that paltry resolution? The iPod's video hardware is so limited, how could it even scale up to 640×480? All of the anxiety about complex solutions were laid to rest after Apple introduced the movies and a firmware upgrade that got a lot more performance out of existing hardware. I argue that similar things will happen in the transition to High-Def video for the Apple TV.

In answer to the above questions, a lot of theories were thrown around in the buildup to the much-rumoured and much-anticipated introduction of movies to the iTunes Store. Theories included having to deliver video at two different sizes and/or bitrates at once, or supporting preferences favouring mobile or high quality. All of them added unnecessary complexity to the simplicity of the iTunes store experience, and felt like a "kludge."

Apple's solution was simple: all videos would be delivered at a high-quality 640×480 maximum resolution, encoded with the H.264 video codec. The firmware on the fifth generation iPod was updated, and impressively so (from 900 macroblocks in MPEG-4 to 1200 with H.264 encoding), so no dual delivery formats were needed. Simplicity is maintained.

With the introduction of the Apple TV, and the accompanying hand-wringing about the relatively poor quality of 640×360 pixel movies shown on HDTVs, attention is turning to how Apple plans to deliver High Definition content to the Apple TV. I don't think the current iPods can be made to understand a high definition stream. While some may imagine a multiple format delivery scenario as predicted before the introduction of movies, I think Apple has another potential trick up its sleeve.

The technology is an extension to H.264, Scalable Video Coding (SVC), and it was scheduled to reach the Final Draft Amendment stage last week. Normally¹, that stage means that the standard is all but finalised; nothing but editorial changes are allowed. An aggressive company often can feel confident in releasing a product based on it if, say, they controlled the whole ecosystem around the product....

The idea around SVC is that you have a normal H.264 base layer, and you can add enhancement layers on top of it, whether they be spatial, temporal, or SNR enhancements. That means that you can improve the resolution, frame rate, and/or picture quality by adding additional streams to the base layer. Consider that the 640×360 standard 16:9 videos have half the pixels in each dimension from 720p videos with 1280×720. This is perhaps the most basic application of spatial scalability, but it's also very relevant. I find it very easy to imagine an additional "track" in QuickTime that fills in three additional pixels out of every four. If a computer (say, my G4 PowerBook) is incapable of handling the full high-def combined stream, it can conveniently fall back to the base layer.

So, in the context of the iTunes ecosystem, these multiple streams and the increased file size need not be delivered to the iPod: with iTunes as the designated hub, the enhancement stream could quite feasibly be stripped when syncing with the iPod. One download, both standard and high definition are there for the appropriate device.

The only thing I'm not sure of is how the audio scenario is going to play out. Encoding and delivering the AC3 (Dolby Digital) stream (as an alternative soundtrack) that most home theatres expect seems very inefficient. AC3 and AAC are kissing cousins, so one could hypothesize a bitstream-to-bitstream transcoding from 5.1 AAC to 5.1 Dolby digital to pump through the optical out, but it also seems unnecessarily computationally expensive.

So the how of High Def seems to have a fair shape. It's the "when" that isn't yet clear. In the punditry vacuum where product development is instant and QA is not a factor, it's feasible to push out updates right away. Strategically, it seems like "as soon as possible" is the answer, as well: a lot of people feel that the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray format wars aren't close to a resolution, and there's a window of opportunity for HD video downloads to become the preferred delivery medium.

On the other hand, Apple will want to do it right the first time. It's a radical enough change to necessitate a new version (perhaps version 8.0) of QuickTime, and a new version of iTunes as well. Would it accompany an announcement of movie downloads in Europe? Would it accompany the "true" widescreen Video iPod? Would it wait for the end-of-year Christmas cycle, when the Apple TV suddenly becomes the must-have accessory that is even more important than the iPod?

I don't know, but I'm keen to find out. I hope for "soon," but I suspect it'll closer to the end of the year.

[disclaimer: This blog entry is merely informed speculation. Although I have some old ties to MPEG, none of this is gleaned from privileged information. The only research I did of this was on public sites. If you follow this blog and past predictions I have made about Apple's products, you will already know not to lend me too much credence.]

[1] My experience with MPEG standards can attest to the fact that this isn't always true: I'll only say that things got complicated in the final stage of standardisation of the MPEG-7 Systems standard, and I personally pissed off a lot of people during one late Friday night's plenary.